African teams at the 2018 FIFA World Cup: By the numbers

By Lindelwe Moyo

For the first time since 1982, there was no African team in the World Cup knockout rounds. A closer look at their performances shows that although African teams were largely placed in the ‘weakest’ groups, a failure to win their key games was their ultimate downfall. Using ranking points (the initial criteria used when drawing the groups) to estimate the difficulty of each group, and key games against Group runners-up, we assess each teams’ performance in detail.

For a change, the main criteria used to allocate teams into pots for the World Cup draw (in December 2017) was the latest FIFA rankings (October 2017). Previously, pots were based on a mixture of historical tournament results, preceding years’ ranking, and geographic locations. In 2014’s draw, for example, seeded teams (highest-ranked seven & the hosts) were placed in Pot 1, while the remaining teams were in Pots 2 to 4 by geographic regions. In 2018’s draw, seeded teams were placed in Pot 1 and other teams were placed in Pots 2 to 4, according to their ranking in descending order. As such, Pot 1 & 2 had hosts Russia and 15 teams ranked highly (between 1 and 18) while Pots 3 & 4 had 16 teams ranked lowly (between 19 and 63). Geographic factors (e.g no African teams in the same group) were secondary.

1. Group difficulty (the relative difficulty of each group, based on rankings used when the draw was made)

Four of the five African teams were drawn in the four ‘weakest’ groups (based on cumulative ranking points when the World Cup draw took place). Only Morocco (Group B) were drawn in a highly ranked group, with Spain (then ranked 8th), Portugal (3rd) and Iran (34th).

2. Key games (performance of African teams in key games against the runners-up in each group)

With African teams all coming from the 3rd and 4th pots in the draw, they were lowly ranked. The best chance to progress would be as group runners-up, meaning performing well especially in the games against teams in direct competition for the 2nd spot. We’ll refer to these as key games.

The importance of key games

Only three of the 16 teams that qualified from the Group stages were drawn from Pots 3 & 4 (Denmark, Sweden & Japan). They ‘replaced’ surprise exits Germany, Poland & Peru from the two high-ranking drawing pots, in the Last 16. According to the then rankings, Peru was 10th in the world, above Switzerland (11th), England (12th), Uruguay (17th) & even Croatia (18th).

Denmark won their key game vs Peru (1-0), Sweden (the only team from Pots 3 & 4 to win a group) won their key game vs Mexico (3-0) while Japan drew their key game vs Senegal (2-2), only securing progression by fair-play (less yellow cards than Senegal). The table below shows that African teams failed to win any of their five key games, losing four and drawing one.

Group Difficulty Ranking (1=most difficult)	Group	Cumulative Ranking points of Group teams used for the draw	African team in the Group	Group Runner-Up (Key game opponent)	Key Game result	Minute decider was conceded in key game
1	E	4415	–	–	–
2	F	4151	–	–	–
3	B	4128	Morocco	Portugal	LOST	4
4	C	4101	–	–	–
5	D	4099	Nigeria	Argentina	LOST	86
6	G	3953	Tunisia	England	LOST	91
7	H	3944	Senegal	Japan	DREW	78
8	A	2991	Egypt	Russia	LOST	59

Morocco (Group B)

Group B (with Spain and Portugal) was the toughest for an African team, given also that Morocco was the lowest ranked African team during the draw. However, the Atlas Lions came into the tournament in excellent form, conceding only one goal in qualifying, a record better than any team in Russia. They had also gone on a year-long unbeaten record stretching 18 international games (bettered only by Spain). Losing to Iran (by a late own-goal) in the first game did not help their cause, but they still stood a good chance to progress had they won their key game against group runners-up Portugal (Lost 1-0).

9 – own goals in the 2018 Group stage conceded by all teams, more than any other complete World Cup

4 – own goals against African teams at this World Cup

4 – own goals against African teams in all World Cup tournaments before 2018

Nigeria (Group D)

Nigeria was the lowest ranked team in their group during the draw. By cumulative ranking, this was the fourth easiest group. But with Messi’s Argentina and subsequent finalists Croatia to face, this may as well have been the toughest. Still, the Super Eagles came closest to qualifying outright, knocked out by an 86th-minute goal in their key game against group runners-up Argentina. A draw in that final match would have ensured qualification.

73% – the percentage of matches (11 out of 15) where African teams conceded a late goal (after 70 minutes)

8 – times (out of 11) when a late goal conceded by an African team decided the match result

4 – times (out of 11) when a late goal conceded by an African team decided the Group outcome

3 – times when a late goal conceded by an African team prevented qualification to the Last 16

3 – times (out of 5) when a late goal conceded by an African team decided a key game result

Tunisia (Group G)

Tunisia’s group was supposed to be the third easiest in the tournament, but with the 3rd and 4th best World Cup teams (England & Belgium), it was not as easy as the cumulative ranking points suggested. Once again, a 91st-minute goal conceded against group runners-up England in the key game proved decisive. Had Tunisia held on for four more minutes to draw, they would have gone into the final game against Panama knowing exactly how many goals they needed to qualify.

Senegal (Group H)

By the same criteria, Senegal’s group was the second weakest in the tournament. After beating the highest ranked team in their first game, they missed two great opportunities to progress in the following two games. With England, then Sweden their next potential opponents, this was the best chance for them to be the first-ever African team to reach the Last 4. They conceded a 71st-minute goal in the key game vs Japan and ultimately went out by virtue of fair play, but a win here would have sufficed nonetheless.

6 – yellow cards for Senegal at the tournament

4 – yellow cards for Japan at the tournament

2 – yellow cards after the 90th minute for Senegal in their key game vs Japan

Egypt (Group A)

Egypt’s group was the easiest on paper and by cumulative ranking points. The Pharaohs ranked 30th in the world (second in their group) when the draw was made, while Russia was 65th, the lowest of all participating teams. Egypt narrowly lost their first game to group winners Uruguay through another late goal, so the game against group runners-up Russia was key. With the English Player of the Year Salah returning from injury, Egypt had just 1 shot on target from 13 attempts on their way to a 3-1 defeat. Their 8% shot accuracy in that game was the lowest recorded by any African team in all 15 World Cup games.

Note: All data comes from the FIFA.com website.